Tūponotanga | Probability (5T4.1)

This term we’ll go beyond luck and start digging into the maths of probability. 

From dice and coin-flips to weather forecasts and real-world data, we’ll explore how chance can be measured, modelled, and predicted. Students will test ideas with experiments, compare results with probability models, and think about why outcomes vary.

Students will learn to:

• Use fractions, decimals, and percentages to calculate and compare probabilities.
• Explore simple probability models (like tree diagrams or sample spaces).
• Investigate independent and dependent events.
• Recognise how sample size affects reliability and fairness.
• Communicate findings using clear reasoning, graphs, and comparisons.

Probability at this level is about more than games. It’s about using maths to understand patterns, test ideas, and make better decisions in an uncertain world.